The Flapping Wings of the Tablet Butterfly

I started this post back in August, as the Summer was coming to an end and I was taking that last trip with the family before the elegant parade of yellow buses began again. I finally got back to a place where I could finish it up (and update it as well)

Riding shotgun and doing a bit of work on this five hour trip seems to now be something normal. Just for a moment, let me give you a sense of what has now "happened." As my SUV hurls down the interstate, we are a rolling WiFi hotspot. Both my girls are watching something on their tablets. One is streaming a movie from my home Plex server. The other is watching Elmo or Mickey Mouse via YouTube. As for myself, my laptop is open and I am doing a bit of work, as well as texting, also on the Internet. Yes, of course I've left the driving to someone else so I can really plow through some work as well as bear witness to the occasional outburst/impromptu sing along from my daughter.  Noise cancelling headphones are optional.

      When everyone's talking, and no one is listening, how can we decide

        - From "Daylight Again" CSN

In a bit of a '70s' mood lately. A few weeks ago, I found myself powerless to resist a remastered hi-def running of all three Godfather movies. It's like Kryptonite yet so so good. Next came "1974", a new Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young box set that captures the group at its pinnacle moment in time. A wonderfully clear and enjoyable performance by what many have called the best harmonizing group ever recorded. How good are they? Good enough to not need any instruments. If you know your rock history, you know that these guys have been part of some of the most influential music groups of all time. The Hollies, Buffalo Springfield, The Byrds and more. Most people know that Joni Mitchell gets credit for pulling  these guys together at a party in 1968. What you may not know is that they were turned down by Apple Records as John Lennon felt their music was nonsense. Soon after, they signed with Atlantic records and were on fire. It was a blessing in disguise as there is no doubt they would have been swept up in the legal tornado that befell Apple Records. My favorite little fact about them concerns Steven Stills.  Stills began as a bass guitar player and wanted to learn lead. So he began to learn lead guitar and chords from none other than Jimi Hendrix. In fact, Hendrix asked Stills to join the Experience but Stills never got the message. For your aural pleasure, I give you CSNY 1974

Marrakesh Express

Recently I had a conversation with one of my good friends about a Surface 3 tablet. He is a regular reader of my blog so he will soon know I am talking about him. Anyway, he was very excited to jump on Microsoft's latest tablet offering. A frequent offender of multiple tablets, he understands the play that Microsoft is making with the Surface: a tablet that can also be a laptop. Most of you don't know that this is the great white buffalo of technology ideas, especially for c-level business people. And, as it happens, Microsoft is making the biggest strides in catching it. The idea didn't get fully realized with the first generation of the Surface. However, credit does go to the boys in Redmond for not sitting around for years before pushing this technology to a better place. We are now in the third generation of Surface, and it's only been two years to the day since it was initially released. Looks as if Microsoft is taking a page from the Samsung playbook since, by all accounts and reviews, the Surface 3 is a hit.

My friend is the perfect match for the Surface paradigm. As CEO of a software firm, the tablet gives him access to his emails, Internet,  spreadsheets, documents, and presentations, all in that comfortable and familiar Microsoft environment. And, he can make minor to moderate changes to all of them thanks to the fully integrated keyboard and track pad that is the Surface. Now, whether hurling through the air or down the highway, his tray-table and windshield time is all-business. As he shared his new-toy-enthusiasm with me, he asked how my travel time looks. I started with an easy explanation that the one-device-fits all model, unfortunately, doesn't work for me…at least not yet. As I dove further into the explanation, I found myself coming back around to the point I've maintained for quite a while: tablets are consumption devices whereas a laptop is a production device. So much of what I do requires the creation of things; complex things. Pushing that type of work through a tablet would likely cause the device to pop all of its buttons and limp back to the case from whence it came, exhausted and whimpering. Plus, I need a bit more screen space as I bounce around from Chrome to Excel to Word to Visio and back to Chrome. This sentiment is shared by most production-driven business people.  Hence the question I posed to my friend: Are you consuming information you've prepared or looking to created it? The Surface is more of a lite laptop than a laptop replacement. However, I will say that with each passing generation of this device, the gap between tablet and laptop really narrows. For the record, you can add external monitors, keyboards, and mice in order to make just about any tablet more closely resemble a laptop. But if you are going to do that, why not buy an ultrabook? And how many people are left without tablets at this point?  There are some very interesting things happening as a result of tablets. I call it the tablet butterfly effect. Take this one for a spin and let me know what you think.

Helplessly Hoping 

For about a year or so, I've maintained that we were rapidly approaching mobile device saturation. Looks like my prognosticating has come true. As more and more devices entered the market, the likes of Samsung and Motorola have experienced extraordinary price and form-factor pressure. Even the unshakable Apple started to feel as if they had been placed into a vise. Remember what happened with flat-panel TVs a few years back? Sure you do. Prices dropped like an elephant jumping off a diving board. And they have stayed there for quite a while. Naturally, you couldn't resist. So, you wandered out to Costco or jumped onto Amazon and bought all the flat-panels you could stand (and perhaps a few extra). After all, pricing may not be this low again, right? No more tubes or old-school big screens for you! And, while they do continue to get thinner, flat-panel TVs don't need to be replaced every few years as there is just not a compelling reason to do so.  Curved screen or the new 4K standard (which by the way has no native programming yet) are just not enough to pry your old TVs off the wall. And, thanks to Chromecast, you can wirelessly add all those smart TV features like NetFlix, Pandora, HBO Go and YouTube to any flat-panel TV for a mere $35.00. Then there is 3D TV. If there is an epic fail in TV land, it would be 3D TV. That is, unless you are Tylenol, Advil, or Dramamine. All that 3Dizziness most certainly sold more medication for those companies. Listen folks, you should have known better with the 3D thing. The disclaimer for those TVs sounded like something you would read on the back of a Viagra bottle. "This TV is not for everyone. Stop watching this TV is you experience headaches, nausea, loss of balance, a sudden decrease in cabin pressure or vertigo lasting more than four hours." Anyway, the same thing has happened with tablets. Low prices have put them within reach of everyone. Really, everyone! And so we come to saturation. In specific, primary and secondary saturation. When I say primary, I mean individuals like you and me. Try this little mind flexing exercise: Name five people that are in your immediate life that don't have a tablet. Children under 5 and your uncle doing a nickel in Folsom do not count. Not so easy, is it? Sure, many people use them as glorified newspapers, e-readers and shopping carts. But, they still have them. Then you have secondary tablets; the ones that either belong to children or to a family. Keep in mind, secondary tablets are in addition to primary ones, not instead of them. Take my family for instance. In the beginning, I rocked the tablet all by my lonesome. Now, some three years later, we have four. We use them for surfing, remote control, gaming, and a gaggle of YouTube videos such as "All About That Bass","Cool Kids","The Lady Opening Toys", and a singing snowman named Olaf singing "In Summer"…all of which seems to be in perpetual repeat mode. I believe many of you find now find yourselves in the same situation. What's interesting is that  people don't feel the need to replace their tablets very often... just like flat panels. I'm not suggesting a lack of innovation with tablets. There is plenty. Yet people don't find themselves shackled with poor performing tablets. That is, unless they bought a really cheap one from the start.

How do I know this to be true beyond my own mind's eye? Well, let's start with the corporate leader of a well-known company, making a rather bold statement. The company is Blackberry and the CEO is Thorsten Heins. The statement came at a time when RIM had fallen from the heavens like an asteroid, and plowed into the Earth. In the midst of the charred dirt and rising smoke, Heins proclaimed, "In five years, I don't think there'll be a reason to have a tablet anymore," and "tablets themselves are not a good business model" Ok, I know these words sound strikingly similar to those from the captain of the Titanic telling people to pay no attention to the cold, gushing water entering the boat. But he eerily foreshadows the current state of events in the tablet and laptop world. Consider a few things. Last year was the worst on record for worldwide PC and laptop sales. Yet tablet sales remained reasonable strong. That is, until we moved into this year and tablet sales flat lined. So much so, The CEO of Best Buy said just a few months ago that "tablet sales are crashing." Oy. Want some numbers to back it up? Try this little piece of technology confection in the form of a Gartner report , released just this past week. It says, wait for it, that tablets have peaked with a penetration level around 40%-50%. What's a bit more interesting is the same article claims that people are returning to laptops and PCs. Cue Mythbusters. Production versus consumption myth: confirmed.

Long Time Gone

Folks, tablets are here to stay. However, I believe we are at the beginning of a kind of device consolidation. See if you agree with the view from my side of the street. Samsung has seen huge popularity with its Galaxy Note devices. Running Android, these are supersized smartphones that let you use an electronic pen and "write" on the screen. A tablet, yet not in the traditional sense, right? Next we have phablets. As the name implies, it is the fusing of a phone and a 7" or 8" tablet. Here you get the benefits of a large screen with all the comfort of making calls. If you think about it, this makes sense as you get the best of both worlds and can drop a device along with a data plan. Phablets are all the rage with younger business men. This group has embraced the murse (aka man purse). These guys are perfectly comfortable toting their stuff in a shoulder or messenger bag. And not just to work. Pretty much everywhere and anywhere. Now that I've said something, you too will notice them all over the place. I'm not kidding. Go check out any men's fashion website or design house and you will see they all sell a variety of shoulder bags, in any size or material you desire. It is the single fastest growing accessory category for men. As a dad with younger children, my murse conditioning has already begun. Water bottles, snacks, wipes and chargers are always on my side or my back. In fact, I have never owned a briefcase in my entire professional career. I've always been a messenger bag and back pack kind of guy. Anyway, back to Phablets. They continue to put up some impressive numbers. Some 20 million were shipped in 2013. Again, not your usual tablet. And, since it is something of an all-in-one device, business people are starting to really dig these things. Sure, it won't fit in your pocket. But, it fits perfectly fine in a moleskin, messenger bag, or murse.

Ok, so we know that lots of people have tablets and that the form factor continues to evolve. So what, right? Why is this so important? Because it is affecting your life in many profound ways; ways perhaps you have not thought about. Which is why you have me along for the ride. Let me introduce you to the butterfly effect. It's origins are in chaos theory. I'm not going to take you there. It is a serious mind screw and you would likely throw away my blog forever. All you need to know is the simple premise: a small change in a complex system can have large effects everywhere else. Put another way, imagine a hurricane being influenced by the flapping of the wings of a butterfly several weeks before. So check out what's happened. You stare at all this technology you have amassed: a tablet or two and a smartphone and a PC and a laptop and a bag full of cords and a small nuclear device to run it all. At one time you needed a PC or laptop. Tablets did not exist. But once the iPad came along (aka the butterfly), something changed. Many of you began to choose tablets over PCs. Moreover, you chose to replace your PC with a tablet or two. Result: PC sales plummet along with prices. When straddled with heavy supply and broad manufacturing capabilities, companies lower prices to dump excess inventory and try to keep product moving. This is Economics 101. If all you were doing was checking email, Skyping, and browsing the Net, a PC was overkill and wrought with opportunity to contract some virus or malware you didn't really want. It also invited criticism and judgment from your nephew as he disinfected your machine while implying you were looking at porn. Mind you, he is twelve.  But it goes even further than PCs. Take a moment and look at the big picture (aka the hurricane). I know you get it when I say that people have been liberated from their PCs thanks to the tablet. But they've also parted ways with their iPods, Kindles, TVs, Blu-ray players, DVDs…even cable programming.  You don't need a quarterly report from any electronics company to know what happens next. You've directly benefited these last few years. You probably just thought it was the economy. Nope. It is all about the flapping wings of the tablet butterfly. I submit to you we are experiencing the hangover after the great tablet party.

Helplessly Hoping

With all these tablets flying around, business people didn't make their travel bags lighter; they are actually heavier since many now tote a laptop and tablet. Different purposes for different devices. Some will go the route of a Surface 3 and fit comfortably within its limitations, just like they have with the iPad. Others will remain devoted to their laptops. None of these ways are wrong. It is actually nice to have choices, even on a trip by trip basis. And the timing could not be better for the airlines. Recently, many of them have announced plans to shed weight and seat back entertainment systems, in favor of customers bringing their own devices.

With our shoulders sore and our devices always on (at the very least in Airplane Mode), tablets have shaken things up for just about every device and media services imaginable. It didn't take very long and is pretty incredible when you think about it. I still think we need a few more generations before I will be able to chuck my laptop. For now, we all will continue to see lower prices will, giving us a relatively inexpensive way to flip between tablet styles as we try and figure out which device or form factor fits our lifestyle the best. Keep an eye on Samsung. Late last year they introduced a 12.2 inch Galaxy Pro Tablet. I recently picked one up from Woot for a cool $300.00! This could be the magic size. We'll see. The tablet battle is pretty much over. Not to worry though. The next battle in the Consumption Wars is coming to a screen near you. And it will be waged by the streaming companies. Last December I spun a tale about how I thought HBO would go direct (How The Internet Is Killing Salmon). Someone at HBO must have been reading it. Last week, HBO announced plans to go direct. The bell now tolls for everyone else, especially the cable companies. In the meantime, I will add a bit of extra padding to my shoulder strap and walk the Earth looking for the next butterfly while waiting for the great white buffalo to arrive.

Teach Your Children

But before I go, I'd like to offer up an observation to each of you. Call it a public service announcement from your Uncle Ricky. Tablets represent the final plunge of the battering ram through your downtime wall. And, like their smart phone cousins, they too need a warning sticker that boldly states "this device will distance you from other humans." There is a new slavery abound: it's called your devices. What begins as a fascinating trance eventually ends up with the device unsuspectingly becoming the master, placing your mind and your time in chains. The effects are very pronounced and profound. Remember, these devices have no consciousness nor perception. And Siri can't tell you to do the right thing. Here are a few things to ponder. You should know to put your device down when you come home and see your children or are in line at the grocery store. Closing your eyes and sleeping on the plane is not only ok, but is still no charge. Driving is not supposed to be a contact sport nor get in the way of texting. And no matter how busy you are, texting and/or talking while sitting in the "oval office" is still off limits, unless you are the President of the United States. 

Somewhere along the way, we decided to share our grievances electronically and anonymously instead of personally and productively. To send an email instead of a hand-written thank you note. To have conversations in abbreviations. To express ourselves in 160 characters or less. To judge each other not by the content of our character but the number of friends in Facebook or LinkedIn. To post on our wall instead of placing a call. To place our phone next to our fork. We have anxiety about life…battery life.  We see the Internet as a right instead of a privilege, where everyone has a voice and no one has responsibility. Actually, "we" have gone missing, replaced with "i." iPhone, iPad, and iTunes, and selfies. Our patience is thin and our expressions unfiltered, one hash tag at a time. We hold our devices more than we hold each other, isolating ourselves from ourselves. How did we become so connected yet so far apart from each other?

Utilizing technology is an integral part of professional life for me and many others. Even so, I am not a slave to it. Nor do I allow it to place me, or anyone else at risk. The same, however, is not true for many, many others. You know who they are. You see them every day, all around you, staring down instead of looking up. It is up to us to emancipate ourselves and those around us. I can assure you that we are not engineered to be "always on." Ironic when you consider that even our beloved devices need to be recharged. Think about that every time you pick up one of these gadgets to "check on something." Trust me, it can wait. The life you save may be your own.

Peace and love...and Happy Halloween