I started this post back in August, as the Summer was coming to
an end and I was taking that last trip with the family before the elegant parade of
yellow buses began again. I finally got back to a place where I could finish it up (and update it as well)
Riding shotgun and doing a bit of work on this five
hour trip seems to now be something normal. Just for a moment, let me give you a
sense of what has now "happened." As my SUV hurls down the
interstate, we are a rolling WiFi hotspot. Both my girls are watching something
on their tablets. One is streaming a movie from my home Plex server. The other
is watching Elmo or Mickey Mouse via YouTube. As for myself, my laptop is open
and I am doing a bit of work, as well as texting, also on the Internet. Yes, of
course I've left the driving to someone else so I can really plow through some
work as well as bear witness to the occasional outburst/impromptu sing along
from my daughter. Noise cancelling
headphones are optional.
When everyone's talking, and no one is listening, how can we decide
- From "Daylight Again" CSN
In a bit of a '70s' mood lately. A few weeks ago, I found myself powerless to resist a remastered hi-def running of all three Godfather movies. It's like Kryptonite yet so so good. Next came "1974", a new Crosby,
Stills, Nash and Young box set that captures the group at its pinnacle moment in time. A wonderfully clear and
enjoyable performance by what many have called the best harmonizing group ever
recorded. How good are they? Good enough to not need any instruments. If you
know your rock history, you know that these guys have been part of some of the
most influential music groups of all time. The Hollies, Buffalo Springfield,
The Byrds and more. Most people know that Joni Mitchell gets credit for
pulling these guys together at a party
in 1968. What you may not know is that they were turned down by Apple Records
as John Lennon felt their music was nonsense. Soon after, they signed with
Atlantic records and were on fire. It was a blessing in disguise as there is no
doubt they would have been swept up in the legal tornado that befell Apple
Records. My favorite little fact about them concerns Steven Stills. Stills began as a bass guitar player and
wanted to learn lead. So he began to learn lead guitar and chords from none
other than Jimi Hendrix. In fact, Hendrix asked Stills to join the Experience
but Stills never got the message. For your aural pleasure, I give you CSNY 1974
Marrakesh Express
Recently I had a
conversation with one of my good friends about a Surface 3 tablet. He is a
regular reader of my blog so he will soon know I am talking about him. Anyway,
he was very excited to jump on Microsoft's latest tablet offering. A frequent
offender of multiple tablets, he understands the play that Microsoft is making
with the Surface: a tablet that can also be a laptop. Most of you don't know
that this is the great white buffalo of technology ideas, especially for
c-level business people. And, as it happens, Microsoft is making the biggest
strides in catching it. The idea didn't get fully realized with the first
generation of the Surface. However, credit does go to the boys in Redmond for
not sitting around for years before pushing this technology to a better place.
We are now in the third generation of Surface, and it's only been two years to
the day since it was initially released. Looks as if Microsoft is taking a page
from the Samsung playbook since, by all accounts and reviews, the Surface 3 is
a hit.
My friend is the
perfect match for the Surface paradigm. As CEO of a software firm, the tablet
gives him access to his emails, Internet,
spreadsheets, documents, and presentations, all in that comfortable and
familiar Microsoft environment. And, he can make minor to moderate changes to
all of them thanks to the fully integrated keyboard and track pad that is the
Surface. Now, whether hurling through the air or down the highway, his
tray-table and windshield time is all-business. As he shared his
new-toy-enthusiasm with me, he asked how my travel time looks. I started with
an easy explanation that the one-device-fits all model, unfortunately, doesn't
work for me…at least not yet. As I dove further into the explanation, I found
myself coming back around to the point I've maintained for quite a while:
tablets are consumption devices whereas a laptop is a production device. So
much of what I do requires the creation of things; complex things. Pushing that
type of work through a tablet would likely cause the device to pop all of its
buttons and limp back to the case from whence it came, exhausted and
whimpering. Plus, I need a bit more screen space as I bounce around from Chrome
to Excel to Word to Visio and back to Chrome. This sentiment is shared by most
production-driven business people. Hence
the question I posed to my friend: Are you consuming information you've
prepared or looking to created it? The Surface is more of a lite laptop than a
laptop replacement. However, I will say that with each passing generation of this device, the gap between tablet and laptop really narrows. For the record, you
can add external monitors, keyboards, and mice in order to make just about any tablet more closely resemble a laptop. But if you are going to do that, why not
buy an ultrabook? And how many people are left without tablets at this
point? There are some very interesting
things happening as a result of tablets. I call it the tablet butterfly effect.
Take this one for a spin and let me know what you think.
Helplessly Hoping
For about a year or
so, I've maintained that we were rapidly approaching mobile device saturation.
Looks like my prognosticating has come true. As more and more devices entered
the market, the likes of Samsung and Motorola have experienced extraordinary price
and form-factor pressure. Even the unshakable Apple started to feel as if they
had been placed into a vise. Remember what happened with flat-panel TVs a few
years back? Sure you do. Prices dropped like an elephant jumping off a diving
board. And they have stayed there for quite a while. Naturally, you couldn't
resist. So, you wandered out to Costco or jumped onto Amazon and bought all the
flat-panels you could stand (and perhaps a few extra). After all, pricing may
not be this low again, right? No more tubes or old-school big screens for you!
And, while they do continue to get thinner, flat-panel TVs don't need to be
replaced every few years as there is just not a compelling reason to do
so. Curved screen or the
new 4K standard (which by the way has no native programming yet) are just not
enough to pry your old TVs off the wall. And, thanks to Chromecast, you can
wirelessly add all those smart TV features like NetFlix, Pandora, HBO Go and YouTube
to any flat-panel TV for a mere $35.00. Then there is 3D TV. If there is an
epic fail in TV land, it would be 3D TV. That is, unless you are Tylenol,
Advil, or Dramamine. All that 3Dizziness most certainly sold more medication
for those companies. Listen folks, you should have known better with the 3D
thing. The disclaimer for those TVs sounded like something you would read on
the back of a Viagra bottle. "This TV is not for everyone. Stop watching
this TV is you experience headaches, nausea, loss of balance, a sudden decrease
in cabin pressure or vertigo lasting more than four hours." Anyway, the
same thing has happened with tablets. Low prices have put them within reach of
everyone. Really, everyone! And so we come to saturation. In specific, primary
and secondary saturation. When I say primary, I mean individuals like you and
me. Try this little mind flexing exercise: Name five people that are in your
immediate life that don't have a tablet. Children under 5 and your uncle doing
a nickel in Folsom do not count. Not so easy, is it? Sure, many people use them
as glorified newspapers, e-readers and shopping carts. But, they still have
them. Then you have secondary tablets; the ones that either belong to children
or to a family. Keep in mind, secondary tablets are in addition to primary
ones, not instead of them. Take my family for instance. In the beginning, I
rocked the tablet all by my lonesome. Now, some three years later, we have
four. We use them for surfing, remote control, gaming, and a gaggle of YouTube
videos such as "All
About That Bass","Cool Kids","The
Lady Opening Toys", and a singing snowman named Olaf singing "In Summer"…all of
which seems to be in perpetual repeat mode. I believe many of you find now find
yourselves in the same situation. What's interesting is that people don't feel the need to replace their
tablets very often... just like flat panels. I'm not suggesting a lack of
innovation with tablets. There is plenty. Yet people don't find themselves
shackled with poor performing tablets. That is, unless they bought a really
cheap one from the start.
How do I know this to be true beyond my own mind's
eye? Well, let's start with the corporate leader of a well-known company,
making a rather bold
statement. The company is Blackberry and the CEO is Thorsten Heins. The
statement came at a time when RIM had fallen from the heavens like an asteroid, and plowed into the Earth. In the midst of the charred dirt and
rising smoke, Heins proclaimed, "In five years, I don't think there'll be
a reason to have a tablet anymore," and "tablets themselves are not a
good business model" Ok, I know these words sound strikingly similar to
those from the captain of the Titanic telling people to pay no attention to the
cold, gushing water entering the boat. But he eerily foreshadows the current
state of events in the tablet and laptop world. Consider a few things. Last year was the worst on record for
worldwide PC and laptop sales. Yet tablet sales remained reasonable strong.
That is, until we moved into this year and tablet sales flat lined. So much so,
The CEO of Best Buy said just a few months ago that "tablet sales are
crashing." Oy. Want some numbers to back it up? Try this little piece of
technology confection in the form of a Gartner
report , released just this past week. It says, wait for it, that tablets
have peaked with a penetration level around 40%-50%. What's a bit more
interesting is the same article claims that people are returning to laptops and
PCs. Cue Mythbusters.
Production versus consumption myth: confirmed.
Folks, tablets are
here to stay. However, I believe we are at the beginning of a kind of device consolidation. See if you agree with the view from my side
of the street. Samsung has seen huge popularity with its Galaxy Note devices.
Running Android, these are supersized smartphones that let you use an
electronic pen and "write" on the screen. A tablet, yet not in the
traditional sense, right? Next we have phablets. As the name implies, it is the
fusing of a phone and a 7" or 8" tablet. Here you get the benefits of
a large screen with all the comfort of making calls. If you think about it,
this makes sense as you get the best of both worlds and can drop a device along
with a data plan. Phablets are all the rage with younger business men. This
group has embraced the murse (aka man purse). These guys are perfectly
comfortable toting their stuff in a shoulder or messenger bag. And not just to
work. Pretty much everywhere and anywhere. Now that I've said something, you too
will notice them all over the place. I'm not kidding. Go check out any men's
fashion website or design house and you will see they all sell a variety of
shoulder bags, in any size or material you desire. It is the single fastest
growing accessory category for men. As a dad with younger children, my murse
conditioning has already begun. Water bottles, snacks, wipes and chargers are
always on my side or my back. In fact, I have never owned a briefcase in my
entire professional career. I've always been a messenger bag and back pack kind
of guy. Anyway, back to Phablets. They continue to put up some impressive
numbers. Some 20 million were shipped in 2013. Again, not your usual tablet.
And, since it is something of an all-in-one device, business people are
starting to really dig these things. Sure, it won't fit in your pocket. But, it
fits perfectly fine in a moleskin, messenger bag, or murse.
Ok, so we know that
lots of people have tablets and that the form factor continues to evolve. So
what, right? Why is this so important? Because it is affecting your life in
many profound ways; ways perhaps you have not thought about. Which is why you
have me along for the ride. Let me introduce you to the butterfly effect. It's
origins are in chaos theory. I'm not going to take you there. It is a serious
mind screw and you would likely throw away my blog forever. All you need to
know is the simple premise: a small change in a complex system can have large
effects everywhere else. Put another way, imagine a hurricane being influenced
by the flapping of the wings of a butterfly several weeks before. So check out
what's happened. You stare at all this technology you have amassed: a tablet or
two and a smartphone and a PC and a laptop and a bag full of cords and a small
nuclear device to run it all. At one time you needed a PC or laptop. Tablets
did not exist. But once the iPad came along (aka the butterfly), something
changed. Many of you began to choose tablets over PCs. Moreover, you chose to
replace your PC with a tablet or two. Result: PC sales plummet along with
prices. When straddled with heavy supply and broad manufacturing capabilities,
companies lower prices to dump excess inventory and try to keep product moving. This is Economics 101. If all you were doing was checking email, Skyping, and browsing
the Net, a PC was overkill and wrought with opportunity to contract some virus
or malware you didn't really want. It also invited criticism and judgment from
your nephew as he disinfected your machine while implying you were looking at
porn. Mind you, he is twelve. But it
goes even further than PCs. Take a moment and look at the big picture (aka the
hurricane). I know you get it when I say that people have been liberated from
their PCs thanks to the tablet. But they've also parted ways with their iPods,
Kindles, TVs, Blu-ray players, DVDs…even cable programming. You don't need a quarterly report from any
electronics company to know what happens next. You've directly benefited these last few years. You probably just thought it was the economy. Nope. It is all
about the flapping wings of the tablet butterfly. I submit to you we are
experiencing the hangover after the great tablet party.
With all these
tablets flying around, business people didn't make their travel bags lighter;
they are actually heavier since many now tote a laptop and tablet. Different
purposes for different devices. Some will go the route of a Surface 3 and fit
comfortably within its limitations, just like they have with the iPad. Others
will remain devoted to their laptops. None of these ways are wrong. It is
actually nice to have choices, even on a trip by trip basis. And the timing
could not be better for the airlines. Recently, many of them have announced
plans to shed weight and seat back entertainment systems, in favor of customers
bringing their own devices.
With our shoulders
sore and our devices always on (at the very least in Airplane Mode), tablets
have shaken things up for just about every device and media services
imaginable. It didn't take very long and is pretty incredible when you think
about it. I still think we need a few more generations before I will be able to
chuck my laptop. For now, we all will continue to see lower
prices will, giving us a relatively inexpensive way to flip between tablet
styles as we try and figure out which device or form factor fits our lifestyle
the best. Keep an eye on Samsung. Late last year they introduced a 12.2 inch
Galaxy Pro Tablet. I recently picked one up from Woot for a cool $300.00! This could be the magic size. We'll see. The
tablet battle is pretty much over. Not to worry though. The next battle in the
Consumption Wars is coming to a screen near you. And it will be waged by the
streaming companies. Last December I spun a tale about how I thought HBO would
go direct (How
The Internet Is Killing Salmon). Someone at HBO must have been reading it.
Last week, HBO
announced plans to go direct. The bell now tolls for everyone else,
especially the cable companies. In the meantime, I will add a bit of extra
padding to my shoulder strap and walk the Earth looking for the next butterfly
while waiting for the great white buffalo to arrive.
Teach Your Children
But before I go, I'd
like to offer up an observation to each of you. Call it a public service
announcement from your Uncle Ricky. Tablets represent the final plunge of the
battering ram through your downtime wall. And, like their smart phone cousins,
they too need a warning sticker that boldly states "this device will
distance you from other humans." There is a new slavery abound: it's called your devices. What begins
as a fascinating trance eventually ends up with the device unsuspectingly becoming
the master, placing your mind and your time in chains. The effects are very
pronounced and profound. Remember, these devices have no consciousness nor
perception. And Siri can't tell you to do the right thing. Here are a few
things to ponder. You should know to put your device down when you come home
and see your children or are in line at the grocery store. Closing your eyes
and sleeping on the plane is not only ok, but is still no charge. Driving is
not supposed to be a contact sport nor get in the way of texting. And no matter
how busy you are, texting and/or talking while sitting in the "oval
office" is still off limits, unless you are the President of the United
States.
Somewhere along the
way, we decided to share our grievances electronically and anonymously instead
of personally and productively. To send an email instead of a hand-written
thank you note. To have conversations in abbreviations. To express ourselves in
160 characters or less. To judge each other not by the content of our character
but the number of friends in Facebook or LinkedIn. To post on our wall instead
of placing a call. To place our phone next to our fork. We have anxiety about
life…battery life. We see the Internet
as a right instead of a privilege, where everyone has a voice and no one has
responsibility. Actually, "we" have gone missing, replaced with
"i." iPhone, iPad, and iTunes, and selfies. Our patience is thin and
our expressions unfiltered, one hash tag at a time. We hold our devices more
than we hold each other, isolating ourselves from ourselves. How did we become
so connected yet so far apart from each other?
Utilizing technology
is an integral part of professional life for me and many others. Even so, I am
not a slave to it. Nor do I allow it to place me, or anyone else at risk. The
same, however, is not true for many, many others. You know who they are. You
see them every day, all around you, staring down instead of looking up. It is
up to us to emancipate ourselves and those around us. I can assure you that we
are not engineered to be "always on." Ironic when you consider that
even our beloved devices need to be recharged. Think about that every time you
pick up one of these gadgets to "check on something." Trust me, it
can wait. The life you save may be your own.
Peace and love...and Happy Halloween